Lago PARANOIA wrote:I'm just wondering why you think that after 2024 the makeup of the USSC following a mediocre Dem Presidency + Republic sweep would be any better or even different than after 2020 following a Republican win.
Your assumption that Republicans will magically sweep 2020 because reasons is fucking stupid. In fact, between shifting demographics and incumbent advantage, a Democratic victory in 2016 virtually guarantees the same in 2020.
Your assumption that an 84-year-old Scalia, with a Republican in the White House, will think to himself, "I'm good. I'll wait for the next one," is fucking stupid. Scalia wants to retire under a Republican president, and he is waiting for a Republican president to do just that. He was only 72 when Bush left office, so he's just playing keep-away with the seat while he waits for the opportunity to pass it on to his masters' next lackey.
Your assumption that Kennedy cares enough either way to not retire during the next presidential term, or wouldn't rather retire under a Republican to begin with, is fucking stupid. He's a swing vote, but he's also a pseudo-libertarian, and he thinks he has more allies among the Republican party than the Democratic one.
Your assumption that there will ever be another Democratic president ever if Roberts controls the court (which he will if a Republican president gets to replace Ginsburg, which by your own admission seems likely to happen if a Republican wins in 2016) is fucking stupid. Roberts has been an active opponent of voting rights protections since long, long before he was a member of the court. His stance on this issue is almost certainly the entire reason Bush picked him (you may have noticed that the Bush's aren't so keen on fair elections). Giving Roberts the court is the return of Jim Crow. That's what it means. That's what Roberts was put on the court to do, and he'll fucking do it.
2020 after a Republican win looks like this (Ginsburg, Scalia, and Kennedy die/retire):
54-R, 54-R, 54-R, 60-D, 65-R, 66-D, 70-R, 72-R, 82-D.
The oldest Republican is 72 - easily another eight years in him. The oldest Democrat is 82 - he's going soon. That's six conservative judges, with John "racism is over" Roberts being the most moderate of the bunch. If Breyer goes, that's
seven conservative judges.
2024 after a Dem>Repub looks like this (Ginsburg, Breyer, and one of Scalia/Kennedy die/retire on the Dem's watch; other of Scalia/Kennedy dies/retires on Repub's watch):
54-R, 58-D, 58-D, 58-D, 64-D, 69-R, 70-D, 74-R, 76-R.
That's five Democrat-appointed justices, the oldest of which is 70. It's possible that both Scalia and Kennedy will try to hold out for the next Repub and get lucky when Repubs win in 2020, but unlikely - if they do, that gives control of the court to Roberts, which is terrible. But it's actually less terrible than giving control of the court to five Scalia's with Roberts in reserve.
2024 after a two-term Dem, which is pretty fucking likely if a Dem wins 2016 (Ginsburg, Breyer, Scalia, and Kennedy die/retire):
58-D, 58-D, 58-D, 58-D, 64-D, 69-R, 70-D, 74-R, 76-R.
That's six Democrat-appointed justices, and barring an unexpected death they will control the court until 2040. If Scalia and Kennedy instead try to out last this president, they'll be 87. And you know what? Without a Roberts court (or worse) to rubberstamp widespread voter suppression laws, the current incarnation of the Republican party will not have a shot of winning the 2024 presidency - so even then they are merely delaying the inevitable.